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Deepak

Why Octopus Paul could have predicted Spain to win?

By Deepak Waikar, July 10, 2010 (21 hours)

Paul the Oracle Octopus has been reported to predict correctly for 6 times results of the recent soccer matches played by Germany at FIFA World Cup 2010 in South Africa. Previously for Euro cup 2008, the same Octopus had also been reported to predict results of matches played by Germany with about 80% accuracy.

Now, Paul has become instant world celebrity. Live prediction of win for Spain against Germany in the semi final stunned Germans. While detailed analysis about how it has been happening is unclear, many started believing that Paul possesses psychic power.

It was reported that same favourite snack food (mussel) along with flags of Germany and the country playing against Germany were put in two separate transparent boxes and lowered in the aquarium in Germany where the Octopus is housed. Couple of small footballs are also seen to be placed nearby where boxes were lowered. The box from which Paul chose snack to eat was declared winner.

German flag has three horizontal strips. Black strip on the top, red strip in the middle and orange strip at the bottom.

Ghana flag also has three horizontal strips with red on the top, yellow in the middle and green at the bottom. Australian flag contains dominant dark blue colour and traces of red lines without horizontal strips. English flag contained thick red crossed lines on the white background. Argentina flag contains light blue strip on the top, white strip in the middle and light blue strips at the bottom. As we know, these teams lost against Germany.

On the other hand, Spain flag contains red, yellow and red coloured horizontal strips against Germany’s Black, Red and Orange horizontal strips. Paul chose Spanish flag and Germany lost to Spain in semi final for FIFA World Cup 2010 on 8th July.

According to the article by CNN, “Truth behind Paul’s winning streak” by Derrick Ho and Liane Membis (10th July 2010) (http://edition.cnn.com/2010/SPORT/football/07/09/paul.predict.learn/)

• Experts say Paul the octopus has simply learned to recognize the German flag

• Octopi are highly intelligent and can recognize shapes, patterns and even people

• The creatures have keen eyesight but are colorblind

Assuming that other factors being less significant, it could be speculated that Paul is attracted to the combination of dominant horizontal dark strips.

What observations can be made from 6 cases which Paul predicted correctly as of 10th July 2010 as per the reports in the media?

Octopus Paul has preference for horizontal dark (black, red, blue would appear as dark gray) strips. Paul seems to have less liking for light horizontal strips which might appear as light gray strips. Octopus may be seeing yellow and white strips as similar shades.

He has also preference for emblem on the flags of Serbia and Spain over that of German. He is less interested in stars and crosses present on the flags.

Uruguay flag contains 4 small dark blue and white horizontal strips against Germany’s Black, Red and Orange horizontal strips. Therefore, it can be postulated that Paul chose German flag if Octopus goes by historical combination dark grey patterns.

Holland flag contains Red, white and dark Blue horizontal strips against Spain’s Red, Yellow and Red coloured horizontal strips. Dutch flag has combination of colours similar to that of Serbia with change of sequence of blue and white strips.

Does strip sequence matter to Paul?

Paul was recently attracted to the combination of horizontal strips of Spanish flag and therefore may have again chosen to eat from that box.

I watched videos and photographs posted on You-Tube and internet for 7 predictions of octopus Paul. And guess what?

So far 6 times out of 7, Octopus ate from box on the right side facing camera and us. Only one time Octopus ate from left box and that was for German versus England.

The Octopus has predicted for 8 matches for World Cup 2010. I could not find photo or video of Australia versus German prediction which was won decisively by Germany. Going by strip patterns, position of box would not matter as Australian flag does not have prominent horizontal strips.

That will make 6 out 8 positions on the right hand side seen from camera. Where does this observation lead to?

If one flag has familiar dark grey two horizontal strips and the other flag light but less prominent gray strips, it is highly probable that the Octopus will eat from the box containing dark grey horizontal strips.

If both boxes have similar dark grey patterns, then Paul prefers right hand side box. That explains why Octopus could have chosen flags for Serbia and Spain against familiar German flag as well as Spanish flag against similar looking Dutch flag.

Does that mean Germany will win against Uruguay and Spain will be FIFA World Cup 2010 Champion?

To be fair, Germans crushed their opponents against Ghana, Australia, England and Argentina. We also know that Spanish outplayed Germans and deserve to be in the final.

It was also reported that Paul’s prediction was incorrect for Euro 2008 final game. Would that happen again for the World Cup 2010?

It will and will have to depend on how Germans and Spanish play in their respective games.

Obviously after this media hype, more analysis will be done by those who are in close proximity and have further deep vested interest.

Meanwhile enjoy soccer and do not become victim of superstitions.

Do I play soccer?

You may have to ask Orcle Octopus or  ...